(This post was originally titled, “The case against ‘Horde.'”  That’s because, initially, I wasn’t convinced that deploying units in a Horde is the way to go.  I haven’t really run them, but my gut reaction has been that while, yes, they throw out a few more attacks, they do so at the cost of significantly increased points, as well as reduced ranks (and, therefore, Steadfast).

Also, since I started writing this, I’ve been talking with Torpored in the comments thread on one of Stahly’s posts.  (Are you following Stahly?  You should be.  He paints some beautiful stuff.)

I’m going to go ahead and begin by articulating the arguments against the Horde, then I’ll meander into the Mathhammer I’ve been working with.  Remember: Mathhammer the end-all, be-all, but it’s a good foundation on which to build reasonable expectations. (It’s also significant to note here, that this is incomplete/bad Mathhammer: it’s just straight odds, without accounting for the more nuanced statistical analysis I’m not really built for.))

Less Maneuverable

This is probably the most obvious problem.

Units, as a whole, are more maneuverable in 8th: what with marching made easier and charges greatly sped up and simplified.  Despite this, steering a unit 200mm (or a 250mm) wide unit is hard.  For example, unless you’re Mv 6, you cannot wheel 90° in a single turn.   The guy on the far end of the unit has to travel well over 12″ (nearly 15.5″) to get around.

I also find myself constantly getting in traffic jams, with units getting in other units’ ways.  Doubling the size of a block is only going to make that messier.

More Expensive

I’m a Skaven player.  I’m used to running things in big blocks of 25-30; that’s because I need the 5-6 ranks for Leadership, for Combat Resolution and for Steadfast.  Running in a horde doesn’t change that fact: I still need 5-6 ranks.  Except, in a horde, those ranks are twice as big, which means my unit costs nearly twice as much.

We’re talking turning a 151 point Clanrat unit into a 290 point unit.  That’s still cheap compared to a lot of armies, but we’re losing a banner (and Fortitude) and a unit to scoot around and flank with in exchange for a huge block of rats.

Not As Killy As You Might Think

So, I ran some numbers.  Assumptions made were:

• I’m talking things vs. Skaven units.  That’s what I care about.
• There would be enough models on both sides to claim full CR for ranks
• There would be enough models on both sides for the unit to make its maximum number of attacks
• The horded-up unit would get 7 files involved, rather than all 10, against a unit 5-wide
• I ignore things like Hatred and the Always Strikes First reroll.  It’d complicate the formulae, making it harder to cut-and-paste.  Plus, these numbers are going to show things being fairly dire for the Skaven anyway.  They don’t need the help.
• Both units have as full a command as possible (so, a champ with +1A and a standard where available)

That last one bears some explanation.  Against poorer troops, the Skaven should win.  Increasing frontage will only help with that.  Against the same troops, of course having more models will make a difference.  The real question is, “Will a Horde formation help my Skaven perform against better enemy troops.”  In that case, increasing the number of Skaven files striking will increase the number of non-Skaven files striking back and, because they’re better troops, having more of them striking back won’t make things any better.

So, 7 Skaven on 5 non-Skaven, stronger troops is about as optimal as we can hope for.  If things look bad here, they can only get worse.

I’m also looking at straight odds.  Statistics are far more nuanced than that, sure, but I’m lazy… and I think the straight odds are sufficient.

Initially, I plugged in Dark Elf Warriors (with Shields) and Chaos Warriors (with Halberds), both units I can expect to see, often.  The former should be marginally better (crap, I just realized I forgot to account for Hatred) with a higher WS.  The latter is inarguably better.  Higher WS, S, T, more attacks and a better save. Then, later, I added some other basic infantry, to see how they compare.

Anyway, the numbers:

This table shows the Combat Resolution (CR) difference, from the Skaven perspective, putting aside any other factors besides Static CR and wounds.  (No, no Charge / Flank / Rear / Height bonus.).  So, when the table says “Clanrats: Normal x Dark Elf Warrors w/ Spears = -0.67,” that means that the Clanrats should, by flat averages, lose that combat by about 2/3rds of a point. (Remember the assumptions, though.)

What does this tell us?

For starters: Stay away the hell from Chaos Warriors. For reals. They will wreck your ratty face off.

Spears do make a difference, sorta.  For clanrats, the increased attacks do offset the increased losses resulting from the lack of a Shield armor & ward save, which is surprising to me. You’re still losing more rats, but it works out for the better.

For slaves, it’s just more dead rats.

Horde also makes a difference.  But that doesn’t surprise me.  Of course more models attacking (11, really: 2 additional per rank, plus the extra rank) will make a difference.  But how much of a difference?  And is it worth it?

As far as how much of a difference: it depends.  In general, not very much.  About 1-4 points of CR… 4 CR is kind of a lot.  1… isn’t as much.  The tougher the opponent unit is, the smaller the difference is.  The better the Skaven unit is, the larger… but that shouldn’t surprise anyone.

How much are you paying for it, though?

The following table assumes that a non-Horde unit is 30 models strong and a Horde unit is 50 models strong, which seems reasonable.

Man, I don’t even think “Average” is relevant; not without including every unit in the game… and, possibly, without weighting those units by prevalence.  Clearly, this is evidence that I’m just screwing around with numbers and should walk. away.

I’m not even sure where I stand on my initial thesis.  Horde is expensive, not particularly super-killy, and less maneuverable, but it is somewhat more killy than nothing and ultimately (thanks to combat reforms and Steadfast) somewhat more resilient.  Since I’m not even sure where I’m going with this, I probably should just delete this post and pretend it never happened, but it’d be a shame to throw this work away.

So, anyone have any thoughts?

Won my game on Tuesday. We rolled Dawn Attack, which helped me out a lot: most of his units were cramped into one flank while I got spread much units pretty evenly, with a number of units to place wherever I wanted.

My list was basically the one I’ve been running, but with the third clanrat unit dropped in favor of a Warp-Lightning Cannon and a Plagueclaw Catapult; I’ve really not spending enough of my Rare allowance and I wanted to give them a try.  Unfortunately, neither really got the chance to do much.  So, I’ll have to experiment with them some more.

Here’s the list I’ll be running next week:

20100727
Skaven – 2,500 points

Lords
Warlord (General) – Enchanted Shield, Talisman of Protection, Warlock-Augmented Weapon

Heroes
Chieftain (BSB) –  Shield, Storm Banner
Warlock Engineer – Lvl 2, Doomrocket, Warp-Energy Condenser
Warlock Engineer – Lvl 2, Dispel Scroll

Core
Clanrats x29 – Full Command, Shields
– Poisoned Wind Mortar
Clanrats x29 – Full Command, Shields
– Doom Flayer
Skavenslaves x30 – Champion, Musician, Shields
Skavenslaves x29 – Champion, Musician, Shields
Stormvermin x30 – Full Command, Banner of the Under-Empire
– Poisoned Wind Mortar

Special
Gutter Runners x6 – Slings, Poisoned Attacks
Rat Ogres x6 – Master-Bred, Packmaster x3
Rat Ogres x6 – Master-Bred, Packmaster x3

Rare
Doomwheel
Plagueclaw Catapult
Warp Lightning Cannon

So, with a few games under my belt:

Dumping the sixth big block of troops worked really well for me: I’ve had problems getting in my own way with so many blocks.  I’m continuing to spend those points on war machines, in the name of science.

I’m really happy with the Warlord’s kit.  He’s hard to kill, with a 3+/4+ and kills hard enough with 5 S5 Attacks.  Ditto with the BSB.  Stormbanner’s far too key to Skaven survivability, and I can’t think of a better banner for him to take.  The Engineers have done well by me, though I need to learn to hold  on to the Doomrocket a little longer: if I wait a turn or two, I won’t have to shoot as far, won’t have to roll as many dice, and will be more accurate.

The Mortars have done okay by me so far.  The Doom Flayer hasn’t really had the chance to shine, though.  It should get a respectable number of wounds, though, which will offset the lack of killiness of the clanrats.

I’ve been incredibly pleased with the blocks of 30 Slaves.  At 20 Slaves, I felt that the unit wasn’t worth taking at any cost.  At 30, things are very different.  They will be Steadfast.  When they blow up, they will cause a respectable number of wounds.  I hated them at 20.  I like them, a lot, at 30.  Now I’m going to try them out with a Champion: he won’t make a difference in terms of CR, but he’ll keep more bodies in the unit, which will help with the Steadfast/Cornered Rats.  I might even drop the Musician; it’s not like I flee with these guys any more: they’re better at controlling enemy units holding them in place than drawing them into hard-to-fail charges.

Clanrats are clanrats.  They don’t really kill much of anything.  The Parry save has made them a little more survivable, I’ve found.  They don’t win combat any more… Static 5 CR is now Static 4 CR and that’s worth precious little now, but they don’t go anywhere.  Steadfast + Strength In Numbers means they just grind away at the enemy (which is effective, though not especially dramatic) or they hold them long enough to get the Stormvermin or Rat Ogres into the flank.

One them I have learned, though, is that if Slaves are in the front, I do not want to flank.  They give up so many wounds that it just means whatever I’m flanking with is going to lose combat, too.

I’ve replaced them with Gutter Runners, which will be more dangerous (even at half the model count) with with a higher WS/BS/I, and Poison.  Plus they should be more effective at countering war machines with the improved Scout rules and Sneaky Infiltrators.

I’ve dropped the Night Runners.  They really haven’t impressed me at all.  The only time they’ve really shone is when 10 of them held a building against a bunch of Ogres: the Building rules had them throwing out 20 attacks, which looked kind of nasty.  Every other time, they’ve done little more than ineffectually plink some slings against models.

I love the Rat Ogre units more and more every time I run them.  The Master-Bred goes before most things, and the Rat Ogres go before a lot of things.  21 S5 attacks by Initiative 4 really adds a lot of punch that the Skaven need help with.  The Packmasters and Stomp attacks don’t hurt, either.  Easily my favorite unit, post-8th.